Forecast of pension provision indicators of the Russian Federation and modeling its financial condition for 2022-2035

Abstract

Introduction. In the context of pension reforms, consideration of the role of the Pension and Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation in the social policy of the country is of particular importance.Goal. Highlighting the problems and prospects of pension provision for Russian citizens, describing the system of interaction between citizens and the state in pension provision, the causes of the budget deficit of the Pension and Social Insurance Fund, the problems of aging of the nation.Materials and methods. The study is based on the forecast of contributions to the Social Fund of Russia, based on macroeconomic, demographic, and institutional aspects. The purpose of the forecast is to determine trends in the dynamics of income and expenses of the Social Fund of Russia, finding the burden of pensioners on the number of employed people in the long term (until 2035).Results and discussion. In the course of the work, it was found that the population is heterogeneous in age, the current demographic situation negatively affects the balance of the pension system, and the trend will continue in the future.Conclusion. According to the results of the study, it can be concluded that the largest group of the population aged 30 to 49 years will retire in the future, and the next generation after them will not be able to provide a decent pension to existing pensioners at that time.

Keywords

• forecast of the pension provision indicator
• financial condition of the pension system
• social fund of russia
• budget deficit of the sfr
• aging of the nation