Pandemic risk: operational aspects

Abstract

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, Intesa Sanpaolo has developed a contagion model aimed at calibrating the measures to be taken to safeguard its employees and the provision of banking services, according to the risk deriving from the external environment. The model is based on both external and internal views: the combination of such elements provides a holistic picture of the overall contagion risk level, enabling the opportunity to take informed decisions for each geographical area. One of the most useful external indicators to feed the model is the reproduction index (Rt) provided by the University of Pavia which is calculated using the Poisson autoregressive (PAR) model. Though more research and development are needed, the proposed model represents a useful tool for supporting the Top Managers in the decision process to continue business as usual safely.