Use of the slide positivity rate to estimate changes in malaria incidence in a cohort of Ugandan children

Abstract

Abstract Background As malaria control efforts intensify, it is critical to monitor trends in disease burden and measure the impact of interventions. A key surveillance indicator is the incidence of malaria. Yet measurement of incidence is challenging. The slide positivity rate (SPR) has been used as a surrogate measure of malaria incidence, but limited data exist on the relationship between SPR and the incidence of malaria. Methods A cohort of 690 children aged 1-10 years at enrollment were followed for all their health care needs over a four-year period in Kampala, Uganda. All children with fever underwent laboratory testing, allowing us to measure the incidence of malaria and non-malaria fevers. A formula was derived to estimate relative changes in the incidence of malaria (rΔIm) based on changes in the SPR and the assumption that the incidence of non-malaria fevers was consistent over time. Observed and estimated values of rΔIm were compared over two, six, and 12 month time intervals after restricting the analysis to children contributing observation time between the ages of 4-10 years to control for aging of the cohort. Results Over the four-year observation period the incidence of malaria declined significantly from 0.93 episodes per person-year in 2005 to 0.39 episodes per person-year in 2008 (p Conclusion Changes in SPR provided a useful estimate of changes in the incidence of malaria in a well defined cohort; however, a gradual decline in the incidence of non-malaria fevers introduced some bias in these estimates.