Carbon effect assessment of territorial spatial planning based on system dynamics: Taking Jiangsu Province as an example

Abstract

[Objective] The purpose of this study was to predict the carbon effects under the implementation of Territorial Spatial Planning (TSP) schemes by developing an evaluation model based on the carbon effect mechanism of the TSP scheme implementation, and provide a reference and support for proposing paths to achieving the dual carbon goals. [Methods] Based on the system dynamics model and scenario analysis method, a system dynamics model for evaluating the carbon effects in the TSP scheme implementation was developed. Taking Jiangsu as the empirical region, based on historical data from 1990 to 2020, the simulation prediction of carbon effects for various scenarios, including the implementation of TSP schemes, was achieved in the study area from 2020 to 2060. Subsequently, a carbon-neutral target implementation path applicable to the research area was proposed. [Results] (1) From 1990 to 2020, the net carbon emissions in the territorial space increased from 32.57 million tons to 357.72 million tons, exhibiting a trend of initially decreasing, then increasing, but overall rising; (2) Under the two scenarios of natural development and the implementation of TSP schemes, net carbon emissions from 2020 to 2060 exhibit a declining trend. However, they remain positive until 2060, failing to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. In the carbon neutrality scenario, under two schemes based on the regulation of non-planning indicators and planning indicators, Jiangsu can achieve the goal of carbon neutrality ahead of schedule, but the scheme regulating non-planning indicators is more feasible; (3) Among the classified net carbon emissions in the territorial space, industrial carbon emissions in urban areas contribute the most, while the agricultural space is the main carbon sink. [Conclusion] Territorial spatial planning plays a crucial supporting role in achieving the dual carbon goals. To achieve the carbon neutrality goal on schedule for Jiangsu Province, it is feasible to adjust certain territorial spatial planning indicators or formulate corresponding safeguarding measures to regulate non-planning indicator factors.

Keywords

• territorial spatial planning|carbon effect assessment|system dynamics|carbon neutrality target|jiangsu province