Missing Climate Feedbacks in Fire Models: Limitations and Uncertainties in Fuel Loadings and the Role of Decomposition in Fine Fuel Accumulation

Abstract

Abstract Climate change has lengthened wildfire seasons and transformed fire regimes throughout the world. Thus, capturing fuel and fire dynamics is critical for projecting Earth system processes in warmer and drier future. Recent advances in fire regime modeling have linked land surface models with fire behavior models. Such models often rely on fine surface fuels to drive fire behavior and effects, and while many models can simulate processes that control how these fuels change through time (i.e., fine fuel accumulation), fuel loading estimates remain highly uncertain, largely due to uncertainties in the algorithms controlling decomposition. Uncertainties are often amplified in climate change forecasts when initial conditions and feedbacks are not well represented. The goal of this review is to highlight fine fuel decomposition as a key uncertainty in model systems. We review the current understanding of mechanisms controlling decomposition, describe how they are incorporated into models, and evaluate the uncertainties associated with different approaches. We also use three state‐of‐the‐art land surface fire regime models to demonstrate the sensitivity of decomposition and subsequent wildfire projections to both parameter and model structure uncertainty and show that sensitivity can increase substantially under future climate warming. Given that many of the governing decomposition equations are based on individual case studies from a single location, and because key parameters are often hard coded, critical uncertainties are currently ignored. It is essential to be transparent about these uncertainties as the domain of land surface models is expanded to include the evaluation of future wildfire regimes.

Keywords

• fire regime models
• fuel succession
• wildfire models
• fuel accumulation
• decomposition
• climate change projections