Is the Regional Precipitation Predictable in Decadal Scale? A Possible Approach for the Decadal Prediction of the Summer Precipitation Over North China

Abstract

Abstract A skillful decadal precipitation (DP) prediction is beneficial for infrastructure implementation, water management, and sustainable development, which currently face many challenges. In this study, a new increment method is applied to the decadal prediction of summer precipitation during 1961–2014 over North China, which has suffered water resource scarcity and increased droughts in recent decades. There are three steps in the increment method. First, the DP over North China is obtained by applying a 5‐year running mean. Second, the 3‐year decadal increment (DI) of the DP (DP at the current year minus the DP at the 3 years before, DI_DP) is predicted by a statistical model with the leading 3‐year DI of sea surface temperature anomalies over the North Atlantic and the leading 4‐year DI of the sea ice concentration over the East Siberian Sea. Third, the well‐predicted DI_DP is added to the observed DP at 3 years ago to obtain the final DP prediction. With realistic DP prediction, including correct regime shifts, the increment method provides a promising and valuable approach to decadal climate prediction.

Keywords

• decadal climate prediction
• increment method
• regional precipitation