An improvement velocity inverse method for predicting the slope imminent failure time

Abstract

AbstractThe slope imminent failure time prediction method could be established with the slope surface deformation time curve before rupture. However, the existing time-to-failure prediction method does not unify the calculation time range, and the forecast results derived from the same model in different calculation time ranges could present significant differences. Taking Longjing rock fall in Guizhou and Dangchuan 4# loess flowslide in Gansu as examples, the calculation time ranges of imminent slope failure prediction were determined to be within the tangent angle of 80°–85° by analyzing the slope refined deformation data and using the velocity inverse method. The deformation curves have an obvious upward and sudden increase when the landslide is in the imminent stage, leading to an earlier landslide failure time. By analyzing the velocity inverse curve in the medium-term acceleration stage and the imminent sliding stage, a correction coefficient ranging from 0.30 to 0.55 was adopted to correct the landslide time prediction value. The results show that the improved prediction method for the slope imminent failure time has great accuracy and certain universality, which can mitigate the effects of slope failures in terms of both human lives and economic losses.

Keywords

• Imminent sliding prediction
• tangential angle warning
• velocity inverse
• calculation range
• correction factor