A risk score to predict 30-day hospital readmission rate in cirrhotic patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis

Abstract

Abstract Background and aim There is lack of 30-day hospital readmission prediction score in patients with liver cirrhosis and SBP. The aim of this study is to recognize factors capable of predicting 30-day readmission and to develop a readmission risk score in patients with SBP. Methods This study prospectively examined the 30-day hospital readmission for patients previously discharged with a diagnosis of SBP. Based on index hospitalization variables, a multivariable logistic regression model was implemented to recognize predictors of patient hospital readmission within 30 days. Consequently, Mousa readmission risk score was established to predict 30-day hospital readmission. Results Of 475 patients hospitalized with SBP, 400 patients were included in this study. The 30-day readmission rate was 26.5%, with 16.03% of patients readmitted with SBP. Age ≥ 60, MELD > 15, serum bilirubin > 1.5 mg/dL, creatinine > 1.2 mg/dL, INR > 1.4, albumin < 2.5 g/dL, platelets count ≤ 74 (103/dL) were found to be independent predictors of 30-day readmission. Incorporating these predictors, Mousa readmission score was established to predict 30-day patient readmissions. ROC curve analysis demonstrated that at a cutoff value ≥ 4, Mousa score had optimum discriminative power for predicting the readmission in SBP with sensitivity 90.6% and specificity 92.9%. However, at cutoff value ≥ 6 the sensitivity and specificity were 77.4% and 99.7%, respectively, while a cutoff value ≥ 2 had sensitivity of 99.1% and specificity of 31.6%. Conclusions The 30-day readmission rate of SBP was 25.6%. With the suggested simple risk assessment Mousa score, patients at high risk for early readmission can be easily identified so as to possibly prevent poorer outcomes.

Keywords

• Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis
• 30-day readmission rate
• Liver cirrhosis