Multi Scenario Simulation of Landscape Structure and Network Connectivity of Ecological Land in Nanchang City

Abstract

[Objective] The changes and differences in landscape structure and network connectivity of ecological land in Nanchang City, Jiangxi Province under different development scenarios in the future in order to provide a reference for environmental protection planning and project construction in Nanchang City. [Methods] Based on the PLUS model, the future ecological land use pattern of Nanchang City was predicted for multiple scenarios. Differences in landscape structure and network connectivity of ecological land in different regions and the structures of the city under different development intensities were studied from the perspectives of quantity and structure through landscape pattern index, morphological spatial pattern analysis (MSPA), and network connectivity analysis. [Results] ① Under different development scenarios, the destruction of ecological land was mainly concentrated in Anyi County and Xinjian District; ② The fragmentation of grassland was very serious, and there was little difference in landscape structure under any development scenario. The difference in landscape index between forest land and water area was small under the ED and EP scenarios, showing strong resistance to medium and high intensity development; ③ Under different development scenarios, the difference in ecological core area was as high as 90.36 km2. Ecological land with multiple types of uniform mixed structure can effectively suppress the generation of isolated islands and maintain regional ecological security; ④ Compared with 2020, under various scenarios, the equivalent possible connectivity index EC (PC) of Nanchang City decreased by 18.76%~23.24%, and the network connectivity in Xinjian District and Anyi County decreased significantly. [Conclusion] The ecological protection scenario (EP) development plan can effectively protect the ecological landscape structure and network security of Nanchang City, thereby ensuring the sustainable development of the city. At the same time, when carrying out ecological protection planning and restoration projects, priority should be given to the construction of new areas, Anyi County, and other fragile ecological landscape areas so as to better maintain the ecological security of Nanchang.

Keywords

• plus model
• landscape pattern
• morphological spatial analysis
• ecological network connectivity
• nanchang city