An Optimal Vaccine Allocation Model Considering Vaccine Hesitancy and Efficacy Rates Among Populations

Abstract

Vaccines need to be urgently allocated in pandemics like the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In the literature, vaccines are optimally allocated using various mathematical models, including the extensively used Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemic model. However, these models do not account for the time duration concerning multi-dose vaccines, time duration from infection to recovery or death, the vaccine hesitancy (i.e., delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccination), and vaccine efficacy (i.e., the time-varying protection capability of the vaccine). To make the vaccine allocation model more applicable to reality, this paper presents an optimal model considering the above mentioned time duration concerning multi-dose vaccination, time duration from infection to recovery or death, hesitancy rates, efficacy levels, and also breakthrough rates—the rates at which individuals get infected after vaccination. This vaccine allocation model is constructed using a revised Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model. The concept of people*week infections is introduced to measure the number of infected people within a certain time duration, and in this paper, the amount of people*week infections is minimized by the proposed vaccine allocation model. Our case study of the New York State 2021 population of 19,840,000 shows that this optimal allocation method can avoid 0.05%~2.75% people*week infections than the baseline allocation method when 2 to 11 million vaccines are optimally allocated. In conclusion, the obtained optimal allocation method can effectively reduce people*week infections and avoid vaccine waste when more vaccines are available.

Keywords

• Vaccine allocation
• optimization
• susceptible-infected-recovered model