Are open access models able to assess today's energy scenarios?

Abstract

The current transition towards a low-carbon energy system requires an increasingly complex energy system framework. This is accompanied by the demand for high result reproducibility in order to provide transparency to decision-makers in terms of assumptions and methodological issues. Given this background, Open Access Models (OAMs) are increasingly entering the market that already have a high degree of diversity. This study analyses and compares the methodological framework of different OAMs to assess long-term energy scenarios. In a first step, selected OAMs are typified and characterised based on predefined criteria. In general, the analysis reveals that OAMs with a high level of accessibility appear to have a rather low level of complexity and often focus on the analysis of a single target year. In a second step, we underline our findings of the model overview by applying a well-established OAM (DESSTinEE - Demand for Energy Services, Supply and Transmission in EuropE) to a current energy scenario for Germany. Overall, we conclude that current OAMs can already be applied to a large variety of research questions. However, comparing OAMs to conventional models applied in the field of energy system analysis reveals that there is still a significant performance gap in terms of the degree of methodological sophistication. Keywords: Open access modelling, Energy systems analysis, Energy scenarios