Photovoltaic Energy Forecast Using Weather Data through a Hybrid Model of Recurrent and Shallow Neural Networks

Abstract

In this article, forecast models based on a hybrid architecture that combines recurrent neural networks and shallow neural networks are presented. Two types of models were developed to make predictions. The first type consisted of six models that used records of exported active energy and meteorological variables as inputs. The second type consisted of eight models that used meteorological variables. Different metrics were applied to assess the performance of these models. The best model of each type was selected. Finally, a comparison of the performance between the selected models of both types was presented. The models were validated using real data provided by a solar plant, achieving acceptable levels of accuracy. The selected model of the first type had a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.19, a mean square error (MSE) of 0.03, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.09, a correlation coefficient of 0.96, and a determination coefficient of 0.93. The other selected model of the second type showed lower accuracy in the metrics: RMSE = 0.24, MSE = 0.06, MAE = 0.10, correlation coefficient = 0.95, and determination coefficient = 0.90. Both models demonstrated good performance and acceptable accuracy in forecasting the weekly photovoltaic energy generation of the solar plant.

Keywords

• shallow neural networks
• recurrent neural networks
• predictive hybrid model
• photovoltaic energy
• photovoltaic energy prediction