Developing an innovating optimization framework for enhancing the long-term energy system resilience against climate change disruptive events

Abstract

The energy system is one of the major sub-sectors of the economy in every society in which both supply with high reliability and compatibility of the energy sector with the environment is a necessity in the process of economic reconstruction and sustainable development. The energy system has been more susceptible to various disruptive events in recent years. Thus, designing a resilient energy system capable of resisting and recovering rapidly from high-impact low-probability (HILP) disruptive events is essential. This paper focuses on developing a two-stage long-term optimization framework for evaluating the energy system resilience as a crucial Critical Infrastructure (CI) system against HILP caused by climate change. The results show the share of electricity generation shift from coal and hydropower to PV in different scenarios based on the maximization of energy system resiliency. The faster occurring this shift, the greater vulnerability of the system. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of the optimum solution shows that the vulnerability of energy systems against HILP events depends on planner flexibility.

Keywords

• Energy system resilience
• Climate change
• Long-term optimization framework
• Critical infrastructure