Projections of Heat-Related Mortality under the Impact of Climate Change in Thessaloniki, Greece

Abstract

The present study estimates the future impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Thessaloniki, Greece. Mortality attributed to high temperatures will increase from 0.64% (95% eCI = −1.12, 2.48) to 3.32% (95% eCI: 0.52, 6.1), whereas cold-related mortality will be reduced from 0.7% (95% eCI = −2.24, 3.31) to 0.37% (95% eCI = −1.63, 2.2). Overall, the excess total mortality attributed to temperature will be increased by 2.33% in the future. Among the elderly, high temperatures will cause 5.14% of deaths, highlighting their increased vulnerability. These findings emphasize the urgent need for targeted public health planning, mitigation, and adaptation strategies to address the health effects of climate change.

Keywords

• heat-related mortality
• apparent temperature
• health impact
• climate change