ELD analysis under tropical climate using wavelet and regression approaches for power management: Indonesia case study

Abstract

The weather conditions in one location can affect consumption patterns and the volume of electricity load demand (ELD) on power systems. This paper presents a wavelet-regression method to analyse the characteristic of ELD in Indonesia towards weather variables under tropical climate namely temperature, solar radiation exposure, humidity and wind speed using daily data from 2018 to 2020. The city of Makassar is used as a case study. The continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and wavelet transform coherence (WTC) analyses reveal that the variability of ELD, solar radiation and humidity showed high fluctuations within a period of 2 to 32 days. Strong relationships are found between the load and three weather variables (temperature, solar radiation exposure and humidity) which are represented in the colourful plots. Another result from multiple linear regression analysis for the whole period shows temperature has the highest impact on the volume of ELD, followed by solar radiation, and humidity. During the seasonal period, the impact of the seasons on the ELD is more pronounced in the rainy season compared to the dry season. The presented results are helpful for power management to meet ELD in Indonesia.

Keywords

• electricity load
• weather parameters
• power management
• wavelet
• regression