Assessing the Imbalances in Growth between Urban Land and Urban Population and the Influencing Factors: An Allometric Growth Perspective

Abstract

Maintaining a balance between urban land (UL) expansion and urban population (UP) growth is one of the goals of sustainable development, and maintaining this balance requires more theoretical exploration and regional experience. This paper re-evaluated the imbalances in growth between urban land and urban population (IGULUP) from the perspective of allometric growth and explored its influencing mechanism, taking urban agglomerations (UAs) in China as a case. This paper reveals that the growth rate of UL in China is slightly higher than that of the UP. However, the IGULUP vary according to development stages. UAs in the primary stage and the early growth stage face the dilemma where UL grows faster than the UP. Conversely, for UAs in the later growth stage and the mature stage, the growth rate of the UP is higher than that of UL. Finally, an increase in economic development level, population agglomeration, fiscal expenditure, and urban compactness can help mitigate the gap between UL and UP. In contrast, industrial structure, urbanization level, and foreign direct investment may hinder the improvement of IGULUP by accelerating the rate of land expansion. These findings may make theoretical contributions to the formulation of more targeted land use control policies and urban population growth strategies.

Keywords

• urban land
• allometric growth
• urban population
• influencing factors
• urban agglomerations