A method for predicting the change trend of homing torpedo discovery probability

Abstract

The torpedo discovery probability is associated with launch situation before homing torpedo launched. In order to meet the need, a method for predicting the tendency probability change is proposed. The torpedo launch situation prediction model is built according to the current attack situation,and the torpedo launch situation sequence is generated. Based on the principle of normal distribution, target dispersion is processed. The area ratio method is used to calculate the single launch point discovery probability of acoustic homing torpedo, and length ratio method is used for wake homing torpedo. Based on the above processing methods, the continuous discovery probability of homing torpedo at launch time is calculated, and the trend chart is generated. Finally, the prediction result of finding probability variation trend of homing torpedo is tested and verified by using typical launch situation.

Keywords

• homing torpedo|situation forecast|discovery probability