MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Potential Geographical Distribution of <i>Hydrocera triflora</i> since the Last Interglacial and under Future Climate Scenarios

Abstract

Hydrocera triflora is a perennial herb found in southeastern and southern Asia. In China, it is only found in Hainan Province. With global climate change, studying the impact of climate change on the distribution of H. triflora can provide a theoretical basis for the scientific protection of this species. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution area of H. triflora in China under historical, current, and future periods based on 66 distribution points and 12 environmental variables. The results were as follows: (i) The main environmental variables affecting the distribution of H. triflora were precipitation in the coldest month and in the wettest quarter, with elevation also being a significant factor. (ii) Over the past three periods, the last interglacial, last glacial maximum, and mid-Holocene, the suitable area for H. triflora initially decreased and then increased. The suitable area reached the lowest value in the last glacial maximum period, at only 27.03 × 104 km2. (iii) The current potential distribution area is 67.81 × 104 km2, and the optimal area is mainly distributed in the Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hainan provinces. (iv) Under future climate scenarios, the potential distribution area of H. triflora is projected to increase by 11.27~90.83 × 104 km2. It is expected to reach a maximum value (158.64 × 104 km2) in 2081~2100 under the SSP-585 climate scenario, with the distribution centroid shifting to higher latitudes. The newly gained optimal habitats will provide potential areas for introduction and ex situ conservation of this species.

Keywords

• species distribution model
• climate change
• potentially suitable areas
• distribution centroid
• China