Evaluation of climate changes and their accounting for developing the reclamation measures in western Ukraine

Abstract

In modern conditions, there are cardinal climate changes on the Earth as at the planetary scale, as at the regional level. According to numerous hydrometeorological characteristics and indicators, climatologists specialists concluded that Ukraine also take place significant climatic changes in the last 10–25 years. In complicated natural-technical systems, which include irrigation and drainage systems (IDS) on drained lands, the selection of regime-technological and technical solutions on different levels of the decision including the time, should be based on the appropriate meteorological information for selecting climatologically optimal management strategies for such systems in the long-term and annual periods. The decisive influence on the formation of water and the overall natural reclamation modes of reclaimed land and harvest crops in many cases depends exactly from climate or weather conditions. Thus, it is necessary to have available data about their implementation to the relevant object as for number of previous years retrospective observations and the forecast period of functioning of the object. Therefore, forecasting of weather and climate conditions become an indispensable condition for implementation of assessing the overall effectiveness of IDS operation. To solve this problem we performed large-scale computer experiment for multi-year retrospective and current data observations in the area of Zhytomyr Polissya. Were planned and implemented the following variants of studies – «Base», «Transitional», «Recent», «CCCM», «UKMO». The forecast was done for five years of typical groups of vegetation periods regarding conditions of heat and moisture provision (very wet – 10%, wet – 30%, average – 50%, dry – 70%, very dry – 90%) on such basic meteorological characteristics: air temperature; precipitation; relative air humidity; defi cit of air humidity; photosynthetically active radiation (PAR); coeffi cient of moisture provision (the ratio of precipitation to evapotranspiration). Obtained results of comparative assess-ment of climatic conditions in Zhytomyr Polissya zone, suggests that for most of the basic meteorological parameters, already there are changes that in the short term may exceed 10% of the critical ecological threshold, which will lead to relevant irreversible changes in the state of the environment in the region.

Keywords

• climate changes
• forecast
• Polissia of Ukraine
• irrigation and drainage systems
• computer experiment