A Maximum Entropy Model Predicts the Potential Geographic Distribution of <i>Sirex noctilio</i>

Abstract

Sirex noctilio, the Sirex woodwasp, is an invasive pest that causes significant economic damage to native and commercial conifer stands through the introduction of a fungal wood decay pathogen. We combined the latitudes and longitudes of S. noctilio distribution points with historical climate data to predict its potential global distribution using a maximum entropy model implemented in the Maxent software. The annual mean temperature, the mean temperature of the warmest quarter, and the precipitation of the wettest month were important meteorological factors that affected the predictions, probably because they have a strong effect on the development of S. noctilio. Our predictions cover the most recent occurrence sites of S. noctilio in China. We predict that suitable habitats for S. noctilio are currently concentrated between 30° N to 60° N and 25° S to 55° S on the world map. All continents except for Antarctica contain suitable areas for S. noctilio, and such areas account for approximately 26% of the total area of these six continents. Predictions for 2050 and 2070 show that global climate change will affect the distribution of S. noctilio. With a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions, areas of moderate to high habitat suitability for S. noctilio will increase; with an increase in emissions, these areas will decrease.

Keywords

• <i>sirex noctilio</i>
• invasive species
• climate change
• potential distribution