Many microbiota-based therapeutics rely on our ability to introduce a microbe of choice into an already-colonized intestine. In this study, we used genetically barcoded Bacteroides thetaiotaomicron (B. theta) strains to quantify population bottlenecks experienced by a B. theta population during colonization of the mouse gut. As expected, this reveals an inverse relationship between microbiota complexity and the probability that an individual wildtype B. theta clone will colonize the gut. The polysaccharide capsule of B. theta is important for resistance against attacks from other bacteria, phage, and the host immune system, and correspondingly acapsular B. theta loses in competitive colonization against the wildtype strain. Surprisingly, the acapsular strain did not show a colonization defect in mice with a low-complexity microbiota, as we found that acapsular strains have an indistinguishable colonization probability to the wildtype strain on single-strain colonization. This discrepancy could be resolved by tracking in vivo growth dynamics of both strains: acapsular B.theta shows a longer lag phase in the gut lumen as well as a slightly slower net growth rate. Therefore, as long as there is no niche competitor for the acapsular strain, this has only a small influence on colonization probability. However, the presence of a strong niche competitor (i.e., wildtype B. theta, SPF microbiota) rapidly excludes the acapsular strain during competitive colonization. Correspondingly, the acapsular strain shows a similarly low colonization probability in the context of a co-colonization with the wildtype strain or a complete microbiota. In summary, neutral tagging and detailed analysis of bacterial growth kinetics can therefore quantify the mechanisms of colonization resistance in differently-colonized animals.