A self-reported symptom-based decision-making model helps to rule out outpatient cases at low risk for CRC before colonoscopy

Abstract

Objectives: Effective exclusion of low-risk symptomatic outpatient cases for colorectal cancer (CRC) remains diagnostic challenges. We aimed to develop a self-reported symptom-based decision-making model for application in outpatient scenarios. Methods: In total, 8233 symptomatic cases at risk for CRC, as judged by outpatient physicians, were involved in this study at seven medical centers. A decision-making model was constructed using 60 self-reported symptom parameters collected from the questionnaire. Further internal and external validation cohorts were built to evaluate the discriminatory power of the CRC model. The discriminatory power of the CRC model was assessed by the C-index and calibration plot. After that, the clinical utility and user experience of the CRC model were evaluated. Results: Nine symptom parameters were identified as valuable predictors used for modeling. Internal and external validation cohorts verified the adequate discriminatory power of the CRC model. In the clinical application step, all 17 physicians found the model easy to grasp, 99.9 % of the patients were satisfied with the survey form. Application of this model detected all CRC cases. The total consistency ratio of outpatient cases undergoing colonoscopy was 81.4 %. None of the low-risk patients defined by the CRC model had been diagnosed with CRC. Conclusion: This multicenter study developed and validated a simple and user-friendly decision-making model covering self-reported information. The CRC model has been demonstrated to perform well in terms of rapid outpatient decision-making scenarios and clinical utility, particularly because it can better rule out low-risk outpatient cases.

Keywords

• Colorectal cancer
• Decision-making model
• Colonoscopy
• Outpatient
• Risk prediction
• Nomogram