Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 in south-west France 2016–2017: A modeling study of control strategies
Alessio Andronico,
Aurélie Courcoul,
Anne Bronner,
Axelle Scoizec,
Sophie Lebouquin-Leneveu,
Claire Guinat,
Mathilde C. Paul,
Benoît Durand,
Simon Cauchemez
Affiliations
Alessio Andronico
Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, 75015, Paris, France; Corresponding author at: Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, 28 Rue du Docteur Roux, 75015, Paris, France.
Aurélie Courcoul
Epidemiology Unit, Paris-Est University, Laboratory for Animal Health, French Agency for Food, Environment and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), Maisons-Alfort, France
Anne Bronner
Direction générale de l’Alimentation, Paris, 75015, France
Axelle Scoizec
Anses, Laboratoire de Ploufragan-Plouzané, Unité d’épidémiologie et bien-être en aviculture et cuniculture, Ploufragan, 22440, France
Sophie Lebouquin-Leneveu
Anses, Laboratoire de Ploufragan-Plouzané, Unité d’épidémiologie et bien-être en aviculture et cuniculture, Ploufragan, 22440, France
Claire Guinat
IHAP, Université de Toulouse, INRA, ENVT, Toulouse, France
Mathilde C. Paul
IHAP, Université de Toulouse, INRA, ENVT, Toulouse, France
Benoît Durand
Epidemiology Unit, Paris-Est University, Laboratory for Animal Health, French Agency for Food, Environment and Occupational Health and Safety (ANSES), Maisons-Alfort, France
Simon Cauchemez
Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, 75015, Paris, France
In the winter 2016–2017 the largest epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) ever recorded in the European Union spread to all 28 member states. France was hit particularly hard and reported a total of 484 infected premises (IPs) by March 2017. We developed a mathematical model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the epidemic and evaluate the impact of control strategies. We estimated that farms rearing ducks were on average 2.5 times more infectious and 5.0 times more susceptible to HPAI than farms rearing other avian species. The implementation of surveillance zones around IPs reduced transmission by a factor of 1.8 on average. Compared to the strengthening of pre-emptive culling measures enforced by French authorities in February 2017, we found that a faster depopulation of diagnosed IPs would have had a larger impact on the total number of infections. For example, halving the time delay from detection to slaughter of infected animals would have reduced the total number of IPs by 52% and total cull numbers by 50% on average. This study showcases the possible contribution of modeling to inform and optimize control strategies during an outbreak. Keywords: Highly pathogenic avian influenza, H5N8, Control strategies, Spatial epidemiology
