Global 3ν oscillation analysis: Status of unknown parameters and future systematic challenges for ORCA and PINGU

Abstract

Within the standard 3ν oscillation framework, we illustrate the status of currently unknown oscillation parameters: the θ23 octant, the mass hierarchy (normal or inverted), and the possible CP-violating phase δ, as derived by a (preliminary) global analysis of oscillation data available in 2015. We then discuss some challenges that will be faced by future, high-statistics analyses of spectral data, starting with one-dimensional energy spectra in reactor experiments, and concluding with two-dimensional energy-angle spectra in large-volume atmospheric experiments. It is shown that systematic uncertainties in the spectral shapes can noticeably affect the prospective sensitivities to unknown oscillation parameters, in particular to the mass hierarchy.