Comparative Analysis of Tourism-Led Growth in Slovenia and Montenegro

Abstract

This article introduces ‘Granger Causality in Tourism Analysis for Slovenia and Montenegro.’ Included within are comparisons of the tourism led-growth in these countries between December 2007–June 2015. The focus of the analysis is directed towards gross domestic product and tourist arrivals as endogenous variables, as well as unemployment rates. In addition, monthly time series of inflation rates are introduced as exogenous variables. The Granger Causalities differ between countries. The latter indicates uni-directional causal relationships of three relations between the economic growths, tourism growth and unemployment rates for Slovenia and Montenegro. Finally, causality from tourism growth to economic growth and vice-versa is found in Montenegro.

Keywords

• Slovenia
• Montenegro
• causality
• tourism
• economic growth