An adjusted Asia-Pacific colorectal screening score system to predict advanced colorectal neoplasia in asymptomatic Chinese patients

Abstract

Abstract Purpose The Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening (APCS) score and its derivatives have been used to predict advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN). However, it remains unknown whether they apply to the current Chinese population in general clinical practice. Therefore, we aimed to update the APCS score system by applying data from two independent asymptomatic populations to predict the risk of ACN in China. Methods We developed an adjusted APCS (A-APCS) score by using the data of asymptomatic Chinese patients undergoing colonoscopies from January 2014 to December 2018. Furthermore, we validated this system in another cohort of 812 patients who underwent screening colonoscopy between January and December 2021. The discriminative calibration ability of the A-APCS and APCS scores was comparatively evaluated. Results Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were applied to assess the risk factors for ACN, and an adjusted scoring system of 0 to 6.5 points was schemed according to the results. Utilizing the developed score, 20.2%, 41.2%, and 38.6% of patients in the validation cohort were classified as average, moderate, and high risk, respectively. The corresponding ACN incidence rates were 1.2%, 6.0%, and 11.1%, respectively. In addition, the A-APCS score (c-statistics: 0.68 for the derivation and 0.80 for the validation cohort) showed better discriminative power than using predictors of APCS alone. Conclusions The A-APCS score may be simple and useful in clinical applications for predicting ACN risk in China.

Keywords

• Advanced colorectal neoplasia
• Colorectal cancer screening
• Risk stratification
• Scoring system