Degree-Day Climatology over Central and Southeast Europe for the Period 1961-2018 – Evaluation in High Resolution

Abstract

The ongoing climate change over Central and Southeast Europe has a great potential to affect significantly the public energy demands and in particular the energy consumption in the residential heating and cooling sector. The linkage of the ambient daily extreme and mean temperatures and the energy needs for condition or heat buildings can be quantified as numerical indicators as the heating and cooling degree-days. In the present study, these indicators are calculated according the UK Met Office methodology from the daily mean and extreme temperatures, which, in turn, are computed from the output of the MESCAN-SURFEX system in the frame the FP7 UERRA project. The study, which is performed in a very high resolution, is dedicated on the analysis of the spatial patterns as well as assessment of the magnitude and statistical significance of the temporal evolution of the heating and cooling degree-days. It reveals general tendencies which are coherent with the regional climate warming, but with high spatial heterogeneities. The study confirms the essential impact of the ongoing climate change on the heating, ventilating and air-conditioning industry over Central and Southeast Europe.

Keywords

• degree-days
• mescan-surfex
• uerra project
• trend analysis