Cost-effective optimal control analysis of a COVID-19 transmission model incorporating community awareness and waning immunity

Abstract

This article presents a cost-effective optimal control analysis of interventions applied to a S2EI2RS type deterministic compartmental model of COVID-19, considering community awareness and immunity loss. We introduce two time-dependent controls, namely, home quarantine and treatment, to the model for defining an optimal control problem (OCP). In addition to some basic qualitative properties, we obtain the reproductive threshold R0{R}_{0} by using the next-generation method and see the impact of controls on it. We also investigate the effect of community awareness and waning immunity, when no controls are applied. The existence and characterization of optimal controls is proved to establish the optimality system, and the OCP is solved using the forward–backward sweep method. The results are simulated using MATLAB. Our comparative cost-effective analysis indicates that implementing both control strategies simultaneously, along with community awareness, is the most optimal and sustainable way to flatten COVID-19 curves in a short period of time than that of implementing single controls. This article offers valuable insights that can assist policymakers and public health experts in designing targeted and effective control measures for COVID-19 and future epidemics in the post-COVID era. Therefore, this piece of work could be a valuable contribution to the existing literature.

Keywords

• optimal control
• pontryagin’s maximum principle
• forward–backward sweep method
• cost-efficacy analysis
• 34h05
• 49k15
• 92b05
• 92d30