Assessing the Credit Risk of Crypto-Assets Using Daily Range Volatility Models

Abstract

In this paper, we analyzed a dataset of over 2000 crypto-assets to assess their credit risk by computing their probability of death using the daily range. Unlike conventional low-frequency volatility models that only utilize close-to-close prices, the daily range incorporates all the information provided in traditional daily datasets, including the open-high-low-close (OHLC) prices for each asset. We evaluated the accuracy of the probability of death estimated with the daily range against various forecasting models, including credit scoring models, machine learning models, and time-series-based models. Our study considered different definitions of “dead coins” and various forecasting horizons. Our results indicate that credit scoring models and machine learning methods incorporating lagged trading volumes and online searches were the best models for short-term horizons up to 30 days. Conversely, time-series models using the daily range were more appropriate for longer term forecasts, up to one year. Additionally, our analysis revealed that the models using the daily range signaled, far in advance, the weakened credit position of the crypto derivatives trading platform FTX, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States on 11 November 2022.

Keywords

• daily range
• bitcoin
• crypto-assets
• cryptocurrencies
• credit risk
• default probability