Response of Global Macroeconomy to Oil Shocks and Comparison of Selected Countries' Vulnerabilities: GVAR Approach

Abstract

The extant study was conducted to examine the economic effects of an oil supply shock, assess the response of Iran's GDP[1] to oil supply shocks specific to the main oil exporting countries, and oil-based Global Vector Autoregression Model (GVAR-Oil) throughout 1976Q2-2016Q4 covering 27 country-region cases. The consequences caused by the positive oil supply shock of the USA included an actual increase in the GDP of oil-importing countries in both developed and emerging markets, an inflation decline in most countries, and rising stock prices worldwide. In particular, Iran-specific oil-supply shock had a minor impact on the global economy because of the increase in the oil production rate of Saudi Arabia. In contrast, a negative shock to the oil supply in Saudi Arabia led to an instant and permanent rise in oil prices. According to countries' vulnerability findings, the economies of Saudi Arabia and Iran were more influenced by negative oil supply shocks compared to Indonesia and Norway. The present study indicated that Saudi Arabia-specific negative oil supply shock had a different effect than other major oil-exporting countries.

Keywords

• : country-specific oil supply shocks
• identification of shocks
• global economy
• global var (gvar)
• financial market