Evolution and influencing factors of population shrinkage in China’s border areas, 1990-2020

Abstract

[Objective] Border areas play a crucial role in national security and regional coordinated development. Population changes in these areas are vital for social stability and sustainable economic development. The study of the evolution of population decline in border areas and causal mechanisms can provide references and support for the planning of sustainable development of border areas and the formulation of related policies. [Methods] Based on data from the four national censuses conducted between 1990 and 2020, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of population changes in 133 county-level units in China’s border areas to reveal the structural characteristics of population decline from the perspectives of natural population growth and population migration, and analyzed the influencing factors of population decline through ordered logistic regression, to put forward response strategies for population decline in these areas. [Results] (1) From 1990 to 2010, the population of most border area units continued to grow, with only the northeastern border areas experiencing significant population decline. However, after 2010, there was a notable shift in population dynamics, with a sharp increase in units experiencing population decline, predominantly severe declines. (2) Significant differences exist in the timing and extent of population decline across different border areas. The northeastern border areas experienced the earliest and most severe population decline; the northern and southwestern border areas experienced large population decline since 2010, but mostly mild; and most of the border areas of Xinjiang and Tibet have not experienced population decline. (3) The slowdown in economic development, the declining influence of border policies, the siphoning effect of provincial capitals, and the rapid decline in the natural growth rate of the population are important causes of the population decline in border areas. [Conclusion] The overall trend of population shrinkage in China’s land border areas is accelerating, particularly prominent in the northeastern, northern, and southwestern regions. To promote sustainable development in border areas, targeted policies addressing the causes of population shrinkage should be formulated.

Keywords

• border areas|population shrinkage|population migration|urbanization|border security|ordered logistic regression|china