Key Challenges in Modelling an Epidemic – What Have we Learned from the COVID-19 Epidemic so far

Abstract

Mathematical modelling can be useful for predicting how infectious diseases progress, enabling us to show the likely outcome of an epidemic and help inform public health interventions. Different modelling techniques have been used to predict and simulate the spread of COVID-19, but they have not always been useful for epidemiologists and decision-makers. To improve the reliability of the modelling results, it is very important to critically evaluate the data used and to check whether or not due regard has been paid to the different ways in which the disease spreads through the population. As building an epidemiological model that is reliable enough and suits the current epidemiological situation within a country or region, certain criteria must be met in the modelling process. It might be necessary to use a combination of two or more different types of models in order to cover all aspects of epidemic modelling. If we want epidemiological models to be a useful tool in combating the epidemic, we need to engage experts from epidemiology, data science and statistics.

Keywords

• covid-19 modelling
• epidemiological aspects
• statistical recommendations
• model quality
• modeliranje covid-19
• epidemiološki pogled na modeliranje
• priporočene statistične metode
• kakovost modelov