Trend analysis and forecast of daily reported incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Hubei, China by Prophet model

Abstract

Abstract Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is common among children below 5 years. HFMD has a high incidence in Hubei Province, China. In this study, the Prophet model was used to forecast the incidence of HFMD in comparison with the autoregressive-integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and HFMD incidence was decomposed into trends, yearly, weekly seasonality and holiday effect. The Prophet model fitted better than the ARIMA model in daily reported incidence of HFMD. The HFMD incidence forecast by the Prophet model showed that two peaks occurred in 2019, with the higher peak in May and the lower peak in December. Periodically changing patterns of HFMD incidence were observed after decomposing the time-series into its major components. In specific, multi-year variability of HFMD incidence was found, and the slow-down increasing point of HFMD incidence was identified. Relatively high HFMD incidences appeared in May and on Mondays. The effect of Spring Festival on HFMD incidence was much stronger than that of other holidays. This study showed the potential of the Prophet model to detect seasonality in HFMD incidence. Our next goal is to incorporate climate variables into the Prophet model to produce an accurate forecast of HFMD incidence.