A Novel Spatial–Temporal Deep Learning Method for Metro Flow Prediction Considering External Factors and Periodicity

Abstract

Predicting metro traffic flow is crucial for efficient urban planning and transit management. It enables cities to optimize resource allocation, reduce congestion, and enhance the overall commuter experience in rapidly urbanizing environments. Nevertheless, metro flow prediction is challenging due to the intricate spatial–temporal relationships inherent in the data and the varying influence of external factors. To model spatial–temporal correlations considering external factors, a novel spatial–temporal deep learning framework is proposed in this study. Firstly, mutual information is utilized to select the highly corrected stations of the examined station. Compared with the traditional correlation calculation methods, mutual information is particularly advantageous for analyzing nonlinear metro flow data. Secondly, metro flow data reflecting the historical trends from different time granularities are incorporated. Additionally, the external factor data that influence the metro flow are also considered. Finally, these multiple sources and dimensions of data are combined and fed into the deep neural network to capture the complex correlations of multi-dimensional data. Sufficient experiments are designed and conducted on the real dataset collected from Xi’an subway to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. Experimental results are comprehensively analyzed according to the POI information around the subway station.

Keywords

• metro flow prediction
• mutual information
• spatiotemporal correlations
• external factors
• transformer