Application of probabilistic models for extreme values to the COVID-2019 epidemic daily dataset
Daniel Canton Enriquez,
Jose A. Niembro-Ceceña,
Martin Muñoz Mandujano,
Daniel Alarcon,
Jorge Arcadia Guerrero,
Ivan Gonzalez Garcia,
Agueda Areli Montes Gutierrez,
Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez
Affiliations
Daniel Canton Enriquez
Facultad de Informatica, Universidad Autonoma de Queretaro, Juriquilla, Queretaro 76230, Mexico
Jose A. Niembro-Ceceña
Facultad de Informatica, Universidad Autonoma de Queretaro, Juriquilla, Queretaro 76230, Mexico
Martin Muñoz Mandujano
Facultad de Informatica, Universidad Autonoma de Queretaro, Juriquilla, Queretaro 76230, Mexico
Daniel Alarcon
Facultad de Informatica, Universidad Autonoma de Queretaro, Juriquilla, Queretaro 76230, Mexico
Jorge Arcadia Guerrero
Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Autonoma de Queretaro, Centro Universitario, Queretaro 76010, Mexico
Ivan Gonzalez Garcia
Facultad de Informatica, Universidad Autonoma de Queretaro, Juriquilla, Queretaro 76230, Mexico
Agueda Areli Montes Gutierrez
Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Autonoma de Queretaro, Centro Universitario, Queretaro 76010, Mexico
Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez
Water Research Center, Centro de Investigaciones del Agua-Queretaro (CIAQ), International Flood Initiative, Latin-American and the Caribbean Region (IFI-LAC), Intergovernmental Hydrological Programme (IHP-UNESCO), Universidad Autonoma de Queretaro, Queretaro 76010, Mexico; Corresponding author.
Worldwide, COVID-19 coronavirus disease is spreading rapidly in a second and third wave of infections. In this context of increasing infections, it is critical to know the probability of a specific number of cases being reported. We collated data on new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 breakouts in: Argentina, Brazil, China, Colombia, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Spain, U.K., and the United States, from the 20th of January, 2020 to 28th of August 2021. A selected sample of almost ten thousand data is used to validate the proposed models. Generalized Extreme-Value Distribution Type 1-Gumbel and Exponential (1, 2 parameters) models were introduced to analyze the probability of new daily confirmed cases. The data presented in this document for each country provide the daily probability of rate incidence. In addition, the frequencies of historical events expressed as a return period in days of the complete data set is provided.
