The changing precipitation storm properties under future climate change

Abstract

Changes in precipitation storm characteristics especially extreme precipitation events have been frequently reported during recent years, which poses great challenges for flood controls of reservoir basins. In this study, we present a comprehensive examination on the evolution of storm properties during two distinct rainy seasons in Changtan Reservoir Basin located on the southeastern coast of China. We compare the differences in storm duration, inter-storm period, the average storm intensity, and with-in storm pattern between the Meiyu flood season (MFS) and typhoon flood season (TFS). We also explore the future projections of these storm properties based on Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) precipitation outputs. Our results indicate that precipitation storms in TFS exhibit shorter duration and higher average storm intensity than those of MFS, the flood risk in June is mainly due to accumulative precipitation (longer duration), while in July to September, is mainly due to the storms with high intensity. The projected precipitation shows uncertainties for different emission scenarios, especially during TFS. However, the increasing trend of the average storm intensity is relatively consistent, which is supposed to bring more pressure on flood control in the study area. The results can provide a beneficial reference to water resources management. HIGHLIGHTS The evolution of storm properties was investigated.; Precipitation in typhoon flood season exhibits shorter duration and higher intensity than those of the Meiyu flood season.; Flood risk in June is mainly due to accumulative precipitation in the study area.; Flood risk from July to September is due to storms with high intensity.; Projected precipitation shows uncertainties but a consistent increasing trend in storm intensity.;

Keywords

• climate change
• emission scenarios
• meiyu flood season
• precipitation storm properties
• typhoon flood season