Modelling the probability of presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Iran until 2070

Abstract

Objective: To determine the suitable ecological habitats of Aedes (Ae.) aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Iran due to climate change by the 2070s. Methods: All data relating to the spatial distribution of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus worldwide, which indicated the geographical coordinates of the collection sites of these mosquitoes, were extracted from online scientific websites and entered into an Excel file. The effect of climatic and environmental variables on these mosquitoes was evaluated using the MaxEnt model in the current and future climatic conditions in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s. Results: The most suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. aegypti are located in the southern and northern coastal areas of Iran, based on the model outputs. The modelling result for suitable ecological niches of Ae. albopictus shows that in the current climatic conditions, the southern half of Iran from east to west, and parts of the northern coasts are prone to the presence of this species. In the future, some regions, such as Gilan and Golestan provinces, will have more potential to exist/establish Ae. albopictus. Also, according to the different climate change scenarios, suitable habitats for this species will gradually change to the northwest and west of the country. The temperature of the wettest season of the year (Bio8) and average annual temperature (Bio1) were the most effective factors in predicting the model for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively. Conclusions: It is required to focus on entomological studies using different collection methods in the vulnerable areas of Iran. The future modelling results can also be used for long-term planning to prevent the entry and establishment of these invasive Aedes vectors in the country.

Keywords

• aedes aegypti; aedes albopictus; dengue fever; chikungunya; ecological niche modeling; climate change