Non-linear relationship between pulse pressure and the risk of prediabetes: a 5-year cohort study in Chinese adults

Abstract

Abstract Previous research has established a strong link between pulse pressure (PP) and diabetes, but there is limited investigation into the connection between PP and prediabetes. This study aims to explore the potential association between PP and prediabetes. A retrospective cohort study encompassed 202,320 Chinese adults who underwent health check-ups between 2010 and 2016. Prediabetes was defined in accordance with the World Health Organization criteria, indicating impaired fasting glucose, with fasting blood glucose levels ranging from 6.1 to 6.9 mmol/L. To assess the PP-prediabetes relationship, we employed Cox regression analysis, sensitivity analysis, and subgroup analysis. Cox proportional hazards regression, coupled with cubic spline functions and smooth curve fitting, helped elucidate the non-linear PP-prediabetes relationship. Upon adjusting for confounding factors, we observed a positive association between PP and prediabetes (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.11–1.18, P < 0.0001). Participants in the fourth quartile (PP ≥ 51 mmHg) had a 73% higher likelihood of developing prediabetes compared to those in the first quartile (PP < 36 mmHg) (HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.52–1.97, P < 0.0001). Moreover, the relationship between PP and prediabetes was non-linear. A two-piece Cox proportional hazards regression model identified an inflection point at 40 mmHg for PP (P for log-likelihood ratio test = 0.047). Sensitivity and subgroup analyses corroborated the robustness of our findings. Our study reveals a non-linear correlation between PP and prediabetes, signifying an increased risk of prediabetes when PP levels exceed 40 mmHg. This discovery has significant clinical implications for early prediabetes prevention and intervention, ultimately contributing to improved patient outcomes and quality of life.