Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change Adaptation and Land Management
Walter Leal Filho,
Robert Stojanov,
Franziska Wolf,
Newton R. Matandirotya,
Christian Ploberger,
Desalegn Y. Ayal,
Fardous Mohammad Safiul Azam,
Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal,
Rebecca Sarku,
Norbert François Tchouaffe Tchiadje,
Evangelos Manolas,
Chunlan Li
Affiliations
Walter Leal Filho
International Climate Change Information and Research Programme, Research and Transfer Centre “Sustainable Development and Climate Change Management”, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, 20257 Hamburg, Germany
Robert Stojanov
Spatial Hub, Department of Informatics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Zemedelska 1, 613 00 Brno, Czech Republic
Franziska Wolf
International Climate Change Information and Research Programme, Research and Transfer Centre “Sustainable Development and Climate Change Management”, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, 20257 Hamburg, Germany
Newton R. Matandirotya
Department of Geosciences, Faculty of Science, Nelson Mandela University, Port Elizabeth 6000, South Africa
Christian Ploberger
Faculty of Political Science, Thammasat University, Bankok 10200, Thailand
Desalegn Y. Ayal
Center for Food Security Studies, College of Development Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 1176, Ethiopia
Fardous Mohammad Safiul Azam
Department of Biotechnology & Genetic Engineering, University of Development Alternative (UODA), Dhaka 1209, Bangladesh
Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal
International Climate Change Information and Research Programme, Research and Transfer Centre “Sustainable Development and Climate Change Management”, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, 20257 Hamburg, Germany
Rebecca Sarku
Sustainability Research Institute, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
Norbert François Tchouaffe Tchiadje
Department of Agricultural Engineering, University of Dschang, Dschang P.O. Box 110, Cameroon
Evangelos Manolas
Department of Forestry and Management of the Environment and Natural Resources, School of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences, Democritus University of Thrace, 193 Pantazidou Str., 68200 Orestiada, Greece
Chunlan Li
Institute for Global Innovation and Development, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
The entire cascade of scenario generation, global and regional climate modeling, as well as concrete measures towards climate adaptation are subject to uncertainties. An exact prediction of how the climate will change in the coming years, and how it will affect land use, is not possible. There is thus a perceived need to identify ways via which uncertainties can be addressed. Based on the need to address the research gap in this area, this paper reports the findings of a study on uncertainty in a climate change adaptation context, and how it is perceived. It consists of a multi-stakeholder survey among climate change professionals, including academic staff at universities, representatives from international agencies, members of NGOs, policymakers, and representatives of industry from 50 countries, including a balanced representation of industrialized and developing nations. The results obtained suggest that uncertainties are often a hindrance to engagement in climate change adaptation efforts, and to land management. Furthermore, there is a range of tools to reduce climate change adaptation uncertainties, whose deployment may help to address them. The paper concludes by providing a list of lessons learned and suggestions as to how uncertainty can be better communicated, and by doing so, how a reduction in the levels of climate change vulnerability may be achieved, and how land management may be fostered.
