Forecasting of pine honey producer sales prices by using Box-Jenkins model

Abstract

Pine honey is the one of the most important non-wood forest products are exported in Turkey. For this reason, determining the price of pine honey and making a future price prediction is considered as a guiding tool for the decisions to be taken for production planning. In this research, real price (2003=100) forecasting for the years 2021-2025 by using pine honey producer sales prices in the annual registration bulletins of İzmir, Aydın and Muğla Commodity Exchanges in the Aegean region where pine honey production is the most intensively. Box-Jenkins method which is one of techniques used in time series analysis was used for the forecasting in the research. According to the model results, it is expected that starting from 2021, pine honey producer real sales prices will follow a fluctuating trend and will tend to decrease. It is forecasted that the average real honey price, which was 4.15 TL/kg (2.77 $/kg) in 2020, will decrease by 18.07% by the end of 2025 and reach the level of 3.40 TL/kg (2.27 $/kg).

Keywords

• pine honey price
• commodity exchanges
• time series analysis
• box-jenkins method
• forecasting
• aegean region
• çam balı fiyatı
• ticaret borsaları
• zaman serisi çözümlemesi
• box-jenkins yöntemi
• öngörü
• ege bölgesi