Vestnik MGIMO-Universiteta (Jan 2014)
On inflation in the Russian economy
Abstract
For the economy is very important to have the amount of money in circulation, sufficient to serve the movement of goods and services without generating inflation, indicating an excess of money, so matching the growth rate of monetary and commodity weight control is an important task of the monetary system in all countries. During the time of the gold standard and bimetallism regulation of the economy as a whole was not considered as an important macroeconomic problem. But the economic crisis of 1929 - 1933 forced to reconsider these views and problems of regulation of financial and credit sphere began to be perceived as a function of a stable level of production and employment. The article describes the monetary factors of inflation in the economy and describes the causes, which can lead to programming of monetary growth in the Russian Federation. As the first group of factors impact on the volume of money in circulation in the national economy, the author defined low value added products produced in the country, based on the external market, and the absence, so the room for maneuver of financial resources to stabilize budget revenues with a deterioration in global market conditions. The weakening of the national currency provides large ruble revenues from exports, which reduces the growth of the budget deficit. But the decline of import revenues, which can compensate for the devaluation of the national currency, leads to higher prices in the domestic market due to the prevalence it offers imported goods. The second group of factors linked to the credit activity of banks, which consists in increasing primary issue in lending importers and secondary, which occurs during the formation of foreign exchange reserves by the Bank of Russia. Result of credit activity of banks is to increase money supply growth and the discrepancy between the higher growth of money in circulation and lower growth rates actually created in the production of value added, which leads to the weakening purchasing power of money and rising prices. Each reason has a direct impact on money supply growth and inflation initiates.
