Exploring the spatial heterogeneity and temporal homogeneity of ambient PM10 in nine core cities of China

Abstract

Abstract We focus on the causes of fluctuations in wintertime PM10 in nine regional core cities of China using two machine learning models, Random Forest (RF) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). RF and RNN both show high performance in predicting hourly PM10 using only gaseous air pollutants (SO2, NO2 and CO) as inputs, showing the predominance of the secondary inorganic aerosol and implying the existence of thermodynamic equilibrium between gaseous air pollutants and PM10. Also, we find the following results. The correlation of gaseous air pollutants and PM10 were more relevant than that of meteorological conditions and PM10. CO was the predominant factor for PM10 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain and the Yangtze River Delta while SO2 and NO2 were also important features for PM10 in the Pearl River Delta and Sichuan Basin. The spatial heterogeneity and temporal homogeneity of PM10 in China are revealed. The long-range transported PM10 was substantiated to be insignificant, except in the sandstorms. The severity of PM10 was attributable to the lopsided shift of thermodynamic equilibrium and the phenology of indigenous flora.