Assessing and predicting the value of ecosystem services in Sanya City, Hainan Island, China

Peihong Song; Qiu Yang; Wenyin Wu; Tianyan Su; Yamin Jiang; Jingli Lu; Zhongyi Sun; Jie Zhang; Rui Yu; Peng Wang; Lan Wu; Huai Yang; Wenjie Liu

Ecological Indicators (Jan 2025)

Assessing and predicting the value of ecosystem services in Sanya City, Hainan Island, China

Peihong Song,
Qiu Yang,
Wenyin Wu,
Tianyan Su,
Yamin Jiang,
Jingli Lu,
Zhongyi Sun,
Jie Zhang,
Rui Yu,
Peng Wang,
Lan Wu,
Huai Yang,
Wenjie Liu

Affiliations

Peihong Song: Center for Eco-Environment Restoration Engineering of Hainan Province, School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China; Sanya Tropical Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Sanya 572022, China; Institute of Tropical Bamboo, Rattan & Flower, Sanya Research Base, International Centre for Bamboo and Rattan, Sanya 572000, China
Qiu Yang: Center for Eco-Environment Restoration Engineering of Hainan Province, School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China; Sanya Tropical Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Sanya 572022, China
Wenyin Wu: School of Life Science, Anqing Normal University, Anqing 246133, China; Huangshan Observation and Research Station for Land-water Resources, Anhui 245000, China; Key Lab. of Biodiversity Conservation and Characteristic Resource Utilization in Southwest Anhui, Anqing 246133, China; Anqing Forestry Technology Innovation Research Institute, Anqing 246001, China; Key Laboratory of Tropical Island Land Surface Processes and Environmental Changes of Hainan Province, Haikou 571158, China
Tianyan Su: Center for Eco-Environment Restoration Engineering of Hainan Province, School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China; Sanya Tropical Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Sanya 572022, China
Yamin Jiang: Center for Eco-Environment Restoration Engineering of Hainan Province, School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China
Jingli Lu: Center for Eco-Environment Restoration Engineering of Hainan Province, School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China; Sanya Tropical Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Sanya 572022, China
Zhongyi Sun: Center for Eco-Environment Restoration Engineering of Hainan Province, School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China; Sanya Tropical Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Sanya 572022, China
Jie Zhang: Center for Eco-Environment Restoration Engineering of Hainan Province, School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China; Sanya Tropical Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Sanya 572022, China
Rui Yu: Center for Eco-Environment Restoration Engineering of Hainan Province, School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China; Sanya Tropical Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Sanya 572022, China
Peng Wang: Center for Eco-Environment Restoration Engineering of Hainan Province, School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China; Sanya Tropical Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Sanya 572022, China
Lan Wu: Center for Eco-Environment Restoration Engineering of Hainan Province, School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China; Sanya Tropical Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Sanya 572022, China
Huai Yang: Institute of Tropical Bamboo, Rattan & Flower, Sanya Research Base, International Centre for Bamboo and Rattan, Sanya 572000, China; Corresponding authors at: Institute of Tropical Bamboo, Rattan & Flower, Sanya Research Base, International Centre for Bamboo and Rattan, Sanya 572000, China (H. Yang)；Center for Eco-Environment Restoration Engineering of Hainan Province, School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China (W. Liu).
Wenjie Liu: Center for Eco-Environment Restoration Engineering of Hainan Province, School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China; Sanya Tropical Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Sanya 572022, China; Corresponding authors at: Institute of Tropical Bamboo, Rattan & Flower, Sanya Research Base, International Centre for Bamboo and Rattan, Sanya 572000, China (H. Yang)；Center for Eco-Environment Restoration Engineering of Hainan Province, School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou 570228, China (W. Liu).

Journal volume & issue: Vol. 170
p. 112967

Abstract

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Recognizing and assessing the value of ecosystem services (ESV) is crucial for ecosystem management, conservation, and the promotion of sustainable development. Land use/cover change (LUCC) plays an important role in evaluating regional ESV. In this study, the ESV of Sanya City in 2000, 2010, and 2020 was evaluated using the equivalent coefficient method. Additionally, the Future land-use simulation (FLUS) model was employed to predict land-use changes in 2030 under five different scenarios. Factors influencing ESV and their interactions were analysed using convergent cross mapping (CCM) and global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSUA). The results indicated that, from 2000 to 2020, forest, cultivated land and unutilized land areas decreased by 61.28 km2, 46.32 km2, and 1.91 km2, respectively, while water areas increased by 8.29 km2 and construction land expanded by 102.53 km2. Overall, ESV showed a fluctuating but overall declining trend, with values of 75.59 × 108 yuan in 2000, 78.23 × 108 yuan in 2010, and 74.59 × 108 yuan in 2020. High ESV were predominantly found in inland areas, while low values were prevalent in the coastal built-up areas. Based on Ecological Protection and Synthetical Protection Scenarios, ESVs in 2030 were projected to increase by 2.78 × 108 yuan and 2.26 × 108 yuan, respectively, when compared to the Natural Development Scenario, due to the restricted conversion of cultivated land and forest into construction land. This study found that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and population had significant impacts on ESV, while forest and water areas exhibited notable individual impact. Considering the LUCC characteristics and land-use strategies in Sanya, the Synthetical Protection Scenario was identified as the optimal choice to balance the red line between farmland and the ecological development of civilization. This study recommends the reasonable planning of urban construction land, the expansion of urban green space, and the strengthening of ecological land conservation. These findings offer valuable theoretical insights for the sustainable development of Sanya City.

Published in Ecological Indicators

ISSN: 1470-160X (Print); 1872-7034 (Online)
Publisher: Elsevier
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Science: Biology (General): Ecology
Website: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/ecological-indicators

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