Econometric Methods of Substantiating Steps Aimed at Passing to the Stage of Extended Population Reproduction in Russisa

Abstract

The article studies approaches to substantiate lines in social and economic policy of Russia aimed at passing to the stage of extended population reproduction, which became possible after revealing econometric methods of dependence of demographic process intensity indicators on living conditions in the country. As such indicators the authors used maximum and standardized rates of population growth depending only on age birth and death factors and net-coefficient of reproduction. Specific features of their content and methods of their estimation were provided, as well as yearly figures of these indicators in Russia in 2000–2020. Options of econometric models were shown that describe regularity of these indicators changeability depending on factors characterizing living conditions in the country. By using factors of indicator flexibility necessary changes in living conditions were roughly estimated, which could provide transition from depopulation to sustainable growth in population in Russia. The authors critically analyzed the results that are characterized by serious discrepancy in indicators assessing necessary positive changes in living conditions needed to overcome the demographic crisis. It was shown that the most trustworthy estimations correspond to the standardized growth rate.

Keywords

• depopulation
• indicators of the demographic reproduction situation
• population growth rate
• living conditions
• flexibility factor
• econometric modeling