Estimating the Theoretical and Empirical Probability Coefficients of Oil Pipeline Transport Infrastructure Failure Modes in Nigeria’s Coastal Ecosystem: Panacea for Non Optimal Deployment of Pipeline Safety and Security Management Systems

Abstract

Failure of oil pipeline transport infrastructure in Nigeria’s coastal ecosystem has continued to pose serious environmental problems with consequent economic effects. This study estimated the theoretical and empirical probabilities oil pipeline infrastructure failure modes in Nigeria. Historical research design approach was used in which time series data of 10 years on Nigeria’s coastal oil pipeline infrastructure failure modes were obtained from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation. The statistical method of probability theory was used to determine the theoretical and empirical probabilities of oil pipeline infrastructure failure modes in order to optimally deploy pipeline safety and security management strategies. It was found that pipeline infrastructure failure by Vandalism poses the highest empirical probability and risk of occurrence.

Keywords

• probability
• failure
• modes
• pipeline
• infrastructure