Comparison of the Basic Reproduction Numbers for COVID-19 through Four Waves of the Pandemic in Vietnam

Abstract

Estimating the basic reproduction number (R0) of an infectious disease is a crucial step to describe the contagiousness and provides suggestions for interventions. To lift the effectiveness of preventive measures for the COVID-19 pandemic, we need to minimize the newly infected cases by reaching adequate herd immunity. This study thus aimed to compare the R0 through four waves of COVID-19 outbreaks in Vietnam and to calculate the minimal vaccination coverage in different populations. The data on the number of daily confirmed COVID-19 patients were collected from 21 January 2020 to 16 November 2021 from the daily reports through the four waves of the pandemic in Vietnam. The R0 values were estimated by exponential growth and the maximum likelihood methods to range from 1.04 to 3.31 from the first to the third wave. The fourth wave was the most severe, especially in the southern provinces, and the highest R0 was in Ho Chi Minh City. The herd immunity would range from 43.50% to 95.76% by various R0 values from different populations. Overall, the presence of new viral mutants increased the infectiousness and the vaccination coverage was higher to establish the required herd immunity in a high-density population. The results provide the basis for policy recommendations and resource allocation for vaccine management and distribution at a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is not yet over.

Keywords

• basic reproduction number
• COVID-19
• vaccination coverage
• Vietnam