Dynamic prediction model of spontaneous combustion risk in goaf based on improved CRITIC-G2-TOPSIS method and its application

Abstract

Due to the problems related to the numerous factors affecting the spontaneous combustion of goaf coal, such as sudden, uncertain, and dynamic changes, and the fact that the weight of the indexes in the prediction model of the spontaneous combustion risk is difficult to determine, an improved Criteria Importance Through Inter-criteria Correlation (CRITIC) modified Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution G2-(TOPSIS) dynamic prediction model of goaf spontaneous combustion was developed. An optimal decision-making model was established by introducing the Euclidean distance function, and the function-driven type G2 weighting method was modified using the differential-driven type weighting method of the CRITIC. In addition, the comprehensive weights of each index were obtained. An update factor was introduced to obtain the dynamic weight, and the primary-secondary relationship of the risk factors affecting the spontaneous combustion of goaf was evaluated. Based on the G2 weighting method, which approximates the driving function principle of the ideal solution ranking method (TOPSIS), a G2-TOPSIS goaf spontaneous combustion risk assessment model was established. The degree of closeness was analyzed and the risk grade of the goaf spontaneous combustion was finally predicted. The sub-model was applied to the goaf of working face 1303 in the Jinniu Coal Mine. It was concluded that the air leakage duration was the dominant factor inducing the risk of the spontaneous combustion of the goaf. The risk grade of spontaneous combustion of the goaf is Class III, and the predicted results are consistent with the actual situation. The improved CRITIC-G2-TOPSIS dynamic model was demonstrated to be scientific in predicting the goaf spontaneous combustion risk, and these research results have important popularization and application value.