Predicting the Egyptian Consumer Price Index in Covid-19 Pandemic using Weighted Markov Chain

Abstract

Abstract Covid-19 is an infectious disease caused by acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus. It decreases the people's purchasing power. It also decreases country's economic development ingrowth indicates. Therefore- in Covid-19 Pandemic- predicting consumer price index occurs commonly referred to explain its effects on the Egyptian’s economic development is very important. This study aimed to predict short-term trend of Egyptian consumer price index using weighted Markov Chain (WMC) in Covid-19 Pandemic taking the national consumer price index data from (feb2020) to -July 2021 as an example. A new weighting scheme to predict consumer price index under weighted Markov chain model was proposed. In predicting the consumer price index, the results obtained by researchers are: in Aug 2021 CPI =114.85 has a 79.15% chance and in Sep 2021 CPI = 116.785 has a 79.76% chance. we can find that: of short-term trend of Egyptian consumer price index, the weighted Markov chain can effectively probabilities and forecast fluctuation ranges. Based on the results of the study

Keywords

• introduction
• .method of markov process
• application
• weighted markov chain (wmc)abstract