Addition of Risk-enhancing Factors Improves Risk Assessment of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Middle-aged and Older Chinese Adults: Findings from the Chinese Multi-provincial Cohort Study

Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to examine whether integrating risk-enhancing factors into the Chinese Society of Cardiology-recommended clinical risk assessment tool (i.e., the CSC model) for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) might improve 10-year ASCVD risk stratification in Chinese adults. Methods: A total of 4910 Chinese participants who were 50–79 years of age and free of cardiovascular disease in the 2007–2008 Survey from the Chinese Multi-provincial Cohort Study were included. We assessed the updated model’s clinical utility (i.e., Harrell’s C-index and net reclassification improvement [NRI]) by adding risk-enhancing factors individually or the number of risk-enhancing factors to the CSC model, for all individuals or those at intermediate risk. Risk-enhancing factors, including a family history of CVD, triglycerides ≥2.3 mmol/L, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein ≥2 mg/L, Lipoprotein (a) ≥50 mg/dL, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥4.9 mmol/L, overweight/obesity, and central obesity, were evaluated. ASCVD events were defined as a composite endpoint comprising ischemic stroke and acute coronary heart disease events (including nonfatal acute myocardial infarction and all coronary deaths). Results: During a median 10-year follow-up, 449 (9.1%) ASCVD events were recorded. Addition of ≥2 risk-enhancing factors to the CSC model yielded a significant improvement in the C-index (1.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.2–1.7%) and a modest improvement in the NRI (2.0%, 95% CI: −1.2–5.4%) in the total population. For intermediate-risk individuals, particularly individuals at high risk of developing ASCVD, significant improvements in NRI were observed after adding ≥2 risk-enhancing factors (17.4%, 95% CI: 5.6–28.5%) to the CSC model. Conclusions: Addition of ≥2 risk-enhancing factors refined 10-year ASCVD risk stratification, particularly for intermediate-risk individuals, supporting their potential in helping tailor targeted interventions in clinical practice.