A two-dimensional complexity evaluation model of megaprojects based on structure and attributes

Abstract

The increasing complexity of megaprojects has brought severe challenges to traditional theories and methods of project management. Traditional evaluation models fail to support managers in properly allocating scarce resources based on project complexity levels because of their inability to capture the relationships between indicators. Therefore, this study aims to develop a complexity evaluation model of megaprojects that integrates a two-dimensional indicator framework and the DEMATEL-ANP method, and test the feasibility and applicability of this model using the Shapingba Railway Hub Project (SRHP). The results indicate that resources, technology and products are controlled and managed by environment, organization, institution and goal subsystems of SRHP, the overall complexity level of SRHP is high, and environmental complexity affects the complexity of SRHP most significantly. Furthermore, the model proves feasible and applicable and can be applied to evaluate the complexity of other megaprojects with minor adjustments following systems thinking and practical conditions.

Keywords

• Megaprojects
• Project complexity
• Complexity evaluation
• System structure
• Complexity attributes
• DEMATEL-ANP method